A new system amplifies old faults Tuesday, Jan 15, 2008, Page 8
…Because Taiwanese disagree on national identity, there is little flexibility in legislative and presidential election campaigns. Identity often becomes the focus of the campaigns, which means there is little change in the two camps' support base. This is a situation that cannot continue indefinitely.
…Yet this was still the focus of the election campaign, which benefited the KMT. Another reason the DPP suffered was that a perceived deterioration in the economic environment had a greater impact than issues of identity.
Because the presidential election in March involves a single nationwide constituency, the party proportional vote in a legislative poll is of major significance: It gives some indication of the nationwide support enjoyed by parties, not local candidates. Thus, adding the New Party vote to the KMT vote, we can get a measure of the support for KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九); likewise, we can get an indication of the support for DPP candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) by adding the Taiwan Solidarity Union vote.
This places Hsieh 16 percentage points behind Ma, and Hsieh has 70 days to bridge the gap.
The DPP's defeat was probably the result of poor government performance and excessive reliance on pro-localization and identity issues. Hsieh's challenge is to change this perception and compete with Ma on other issues of concern to the public.
In future, every presidential candidate from a party that loses legislative elections will face this conundrum: How does one turn around public opinion in the short time that separates the legislative and presidential polls?
The KMT will expect the support it received in the legislative elections will build momentum for Ma, while the DPP will hope for a "pendulum effect" to maintain its hold on the presidency. If Ma wins the presidency, the conflict between the government and the legislature will be greatly diminished. If Hsieh wins, however, he will have to deal with the massive KMT legislative majority through far-reaching compromises lest the legislature challenge his right to appoint the premier.
Regardless, Taiwan's semi-presidential system will no longer produce the kind of president-appointed minority government that we have lived with for the past eight years. From this perspective, Saturday's elections will have a historic impact on the constitutional framework and implementation of policy.
By Wu Yu-shan 吳玉山：Wu Yu-shan is director of the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica.
立委選舉的挫敗可能對民主進步黨有利：
Election fallout: Defeat could work to DPP's advantage, say observers
Hsiao Hsin-huang (蕭新煌) said it was time for the public to switch their attention from Chen to Hsieh and his Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) rival Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).
"Let's hear them talk about their visions, policies, achievements and performances," he said.
Hsiao said he doubted the KMT's newly elected legislators would earnestly help Ma's presidential bid.
He said it was understandable that the DPP had lost the legislative elections because the party has insufficient funds and was incapable of running the country.
Of the KMT, Hsiao said he had no idea why people supported a party that has failed to reflect on itself since it lost power eight years ago.
Li Ming-juinn (李明峻), deputy secretary-general of the Taiwanese
Society of International Law, expressed concerns that the KMT, which now holds a two-thirds majority in the legislature, could pass a law sanctioning the party to sign a peace agreement with Beijing at the expense of Taiwan's sovereignty.
期待國民黨立委自我節制如同緣木求魚：
…Although the legislature provides the full archive of the recordings, the system can only be accessed within the network of the Legislative Yuan.
Tsai, on the other hand, looked to the media and academics for supervision of the KMT.
"Expecting the KMT to exercise self-restraint would be a little bit like fishing in the air," Tsai said.
總統大舉時的認同問題至關重要：
Finally, the issue of identity could prove crucial. Ma won the KMT chairmanship on a platform of reform, but after being elected he tended to talk to the old Mainlanders and did not implement any reforms. While Mainlanders, as the minority who have lost their formerly privileged positions, have led the way in "ethnic voting," some ethnic Taiwanese are now questioning whether they can vote for a Mainlander for president. This feeling, too, will help Hsieh.
延伸閱讀
1．敗在媒體、選制
2．林濁水：選制不改 民進黨翻身機會微乎其微
Media must keep an eye on the new legislature
...Can the public expect the media to change overnight and become a professional watchdog over a legislature dominated by one party? Can we expect the media to measure the KMT -- a mega party that may gather up all five branches of the government into its hands -- by the same standards it measured the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) minority government?
...
...
In short, as no one wishes to see the return of an Orwellian autocracy, it is hoped that the mainstream media can ultimately dispel political polarization. Taiwanese eagerly await the birth of a public platform for legislative supervision.
Taiwanese democracy cannot be allowed to regress -- both the media and the public are responsible for monitoring political forces.
Lillian Wang is an associate professor of journalism at National Chengchi University.
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